In an article titled “Choices leading to the Most Important Decisions in Your Life” (Linkedin), by: Srinivas Rao. Linkedin, dated September 3, 2020, as published in:

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: www.linkedin.com/pulse/5-most-important-decisions-you-make-your-life-srinivas-rao/ 

Mr Rao considers the following quotes by David Brooks and Annie Duke:

The paradox of life is that people seem to deliberate more carefully over little choices than the big ones. Before buying a car, they read all the ratings, check out resale values on the internet, and so on. 

But when it comes to choosing a vocation, they just sort of slide rather than decide. They slide incrementally into a career because someone gave them a job. They marry the person whom they happen to be living with.

 — David Brooks, The Second Mountain

What makes a decision great is that not it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge.

 — Annie Duke

It’s a mistake to simply accept the received ideas of the world around you. 

You have to come up with your own values, your own worldview.

 — David Brooks, The Second Mountain

When reading the full article, we find out that we should first develop our own choices, since then they will determine our decisions, as follows:

1. Values: status values, character values, faith values
2. Friendship / social circles: reciprocity and intentionality
3. Environment: where you are and who you are with
4. Careers: curiosity vs career paths, prestige vs responsibility, your first boss 

For more information about this, read the full article by clicking here.

In an article titled “3 Ways to Improve Your Decision Making” (Harvard), by Walter Frick, dated January 22, 2018, as published in:

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: hbr.org/2018/01/3-ways-to-improve-your-decision-making 

We can find out that there is a very short list of specific rules that will help us improve our decision-making processes.

The first rule refers to how “certain” we pretend we are about our decisions

As stated in the original article:

“Nobel-prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman has said that overconfidence is the bias he’d eliminate first. It’s ubiquitous.”

Then, the author suggests that we can improve our decision making by simply finding out how we can be brave and accept that it is impossible to be certain about our decisions. Overconfidence is sometimes a habit that can be controlled by simply revisiting the logic of our decisions.

A second rule suggests that we take an outside view

The author suggests we ask ourselves “How often does that typically happen?”

This is highly beneficial, since sometimes we are overloaded with the specifics (our own close view) of the decision, that simply do not let us do a formal and solid analysis. Instead, we should consider similar cases, asking ourselves “how often does this happen?”.

Finally, we can think in terms of probability

That is, if we know the basic elements of probability, we can avoid common errors in logic.

Let us do a simple test: if we drop a coin, it can go down as face, or tail. The simple question could be: what are the chances we get either? And a simple answer would be “50% face, and 50% of having tails”.

Given that, if we are allowed two throws, then what is the probability of getting at least one face? The simple answer would be: 50% probability of getting face, twice = 100%, or 50 + 50% = 100%.

However, that is not the right answer. Unique probabilities should be multiplied. The probability of not getting face in each throw is 50%. The probability of not getting face twice in a row is 50% x 50% = 0.50 x 0.50 = 0.25 or 25%. That is, the probability of getting at least one face is 100% – 25% = 75%.

These are the simple calculations we should not only learn, but really come to terms with, until we fully understand them. If we manage that, cognitive biases will be greatly reduced. 

The author suggests that we “spend just a few minutes, or hours, and learn about it: this will help you with the first two rules. You’ll be able to better express your uncertainty and to numerically think about it. The three rules are more powerful when used together.”

For more detailed information, read the full article by clicking here.

In an article titled “The 37 Percent Rule: The Mathematical Trick for Making Much Better Decisions, by Jessica Stillman, contributor at Inc.com@entrylevelrebel, dated May 12, 2022, as published in:

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/decision-making-37-percent-rule.html

Ms. Stillman states: “Whether you’re choosing a spouse or a storefront, this math-based trick can help you pick well.”

The author then considers how it is very important, for good decision making, to be able to balance “exploration and decisiveness”.

Mathematicians seem to state that, when making a major decision, there is a rule that works. In very short words: Dedicate, at first, 37 percent of your time or effort to make that decision, just putting together the necessary information without making a decision about anything just yet. After that, the trick is completed by choosing the very first option that comes along that improves on all those that you have seen so far.

It certainly may seem strange but, this strangely exact rule has a formula (if you are good at math, you can find a specific description here), and mathematicians state that through this rule, anyone will get the maximum probability of making a good choice, even the best possible choice available. 

This rule only maximizes probabilities. Success is not guaranteed. If you somehow have found a great option, and you feel very confident about a decision you have just made, don’t hesitate and just go ahead with it.

In a nutshell, the suggestion is that we spend about one third of our process conducive to a decision, just putting together the information you need. No more, and no less. This strikes a good balance in your overall process.

For more information about this, read the full article by clicking here.